Every year, the bank publishes some shocking forecasts for the coming new year. Some make you shiver.
Plan for the unexpected. Isn’t that the role of governments or of financial institutions and banks? In this little game of the crystal ball, Saxo Bank publishes at the end of each year its 10 shock forecasts for the coming year, estimating the impact that this could have on the markets. And in a world paralyzed by geopolitical, economic, energy and health uncertainties, it goes without saying that none of these scenarios, although unlikely, should be completely ruled out… We have selected four of them.
A resignation of Emmanuel Macron
Without an absolute majority in the National Assembly, “the government has no choice but to adopt major laws and the 2023 budget by accelerated decree, triggering Article 49.3 of the Constitution. Nevertheless, it is not It is not acceptable to circumvent the legislator to govern in a democracy. Emmanuel Macron understands that he will be a lame duck for the next four years and that he will not be able to pass his pension reform that he signed. Next the example of Charles de Gaulle in 1946 and 1969, Emmanuel Macron decides to resign in 2023, against all odds”.
“The resignation of Emmanuel Macron opens the doors of the Élysée to the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen. The event causes a real shock wave in France and abroad, and sounds like a new blow focused on the European project and its shaky institutional foundations” imagines the bank.
Inflation does not subside, price controls become widespread
“2023 is the year in which the market realizes that inflation is not about to subside. The Fed’s rate hike and quantitative tightening cause another blow to US Treasury markets. The Fed is forced to take further underhanded action to stem volatility in the US Treasuries market,” Saxo wrote.
“In a war economy, the hand of government will extend ruthlessly as long as price pressures undermine stability. Political leaders are convinced that rising prices reflect market failure and that more is needed. interventionism to prevent inflation from destabilizing the economy and society. The year 2023 will be marked by greater control of prices and wages. But the result will be the same as for almost all government policies: the law of undesirable consequences,” predicts Saxo.
“Controlling prices without solving the underlying problem will not only cause more inflation, but it could also tear the social fabric. Indeed, the brakes on production and the mismanagement of resources and investments could cause a deterioration of the living conditions. Only prices set by the market can improve productivity and profitability through investment”.
The United Kingdom holds a referendum to rejoin the European Union
“In 2023, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt pull off the feat of bringing down the popularity ratings of the British Conservatives to historic levels. Their budget program, of unprecedented violence, plunges the United Kingdom into a brutal recession, with a skyrocketing unemployment and, paradoxically, soaring deficits due to the drying up of tax revenues” imagines the bank.
“In this economic chaos, polls in England and Wales show that people regret their vote for Brexit. Rishi Sunak finally cracks, organizes a ballot and resigns to allow a new Conservative candidate to take the lead of the bruised party. He notes the popular support for a second referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union”.
“A Labor government takes power in the third quarter, promising a European Union membership referendum for November 1, 2023. The camp in favor of new EU membership wins.”
Country bans meat production by 2030
“To achieve the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050, a study estimates that meat consumption should be reduced to 24kg per person per year, compared to 70kg on average in OECD countries today. (… ) In 2023, a country wishing to take the lead in the fight against global warming undertakes to tax the production and consumption of meat more heavily from 2025” scripts Saxo.
“In addition, the country in question plans to ban all animal meats by 2030, believing that it will be necessary to settle for vegetable meats, which produce less carbon emissions, to help save the environment and fight against climate change”.
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