Tariff shield: how much will your bills increase this year?

1^er February, the regulated electricity tariff increases, after that of gas. Here is everything that will change in terms of price shields this year.

The regulated electricity tariff increases by 15% on 1^er february

TRUE

The regulated electricity sales tariff (TRV), reviewed once a year in February, is set by the State, on the proposal of the CRE (Energy Regulation Commission). The latter notably takes into account wholesale electricity prices. They had exploded in 2022, due to the war in Ukraine. Even if they are now in decline, they remain at high levels. To avoid a surge in bills, the State introduced last year a “tariff shield”, a cap on the evolution of the tariff (at 4%). On February 1, 2023, the increase will be “only” 15% (instead of 99%, according to the CRE calculation). So much so that a customer consuming 8,500 kWh could see his annual bill drop on average from €1,604 to €1,845.

Read also: Energy crisis. Decorrelate electricity prices from gas prices: good or bad idea?

The regulated gas price has already increased by 15%

TRUE

The gas TRV is reviewed each month by CRE. The government was therefore able to revise the tariff shield from the start of the year. He limited the rise to 1^er January at 15% (instead of 56% according to CRE). A private individual, consuming 13,690 kWh per year, could therefore see his average annual bill go from €1,453 to €1,675, calculates the CRE.

Regulated tariffs protect all subscribers

Fake

We are going to extend the tariff shield for all households in 2023”, declared Elisabeth Borne, the Prime Minister, in the fall. The reality is more nuanced. Regarding gas, the tariff shield protects 2.6 million TRV subscribers at Engie (since 2019, we can no longer subscribe to it). Also the 2.4 million subscribers who have subscribed, at Engie or one of its competitors, to a “market offer”, indexed on the TRV.

There remain nearly six million gas subscribers. Among them, about 1.6 million benefit from the tariff shield, but in a limited way. To understand, it must be remembered that the shield is accompanied by State compensation from gas suppliers: Engie, TotalEnergies, EDF, etc. Because the latter buy the gas at high prices on the markets and they resell it cheaper to the customers concerned. Previously, only suppliers offering contracts indexed to the TRV could receive this compensation. For competition reasons, the government has extended this measure to all contracts signed from 1^er September 2022, regardless of supplier. It is then up to him to pass on this state aid to his customers. But a discount does not necessarily mean a low price. On the comparator of the Energy Ombudsman (energie-info.fr), we observe, for an annual consumption of 13,690 kWh, contracts up to €4,700 per year (three times the TRV)!

As for market offers signed before September 2022, they are not protected by the shield. The users most in difficulty are those who have a contract indexed to wholesale prices, say the services of the Mediator. Some are experiencing astronomical increases. 5,000 of them seized us last year, twice as many as in 2021.

Read also: End of the regulated gas tariff: a consumer association requests an extension of the deadline

The regulated gas tariff will disappear

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It ends on June 30, 2023, under European law. But how will the tariff shield apply in the second half without the TRV?Thanks to a price reference, drawn up by the CRE”, responds the Ministry of Energy Transition. 1^er July, Engie TRV subscribers will therefore switch to an offer indexed to the CRE benchmark, guaranteeing price maintenance”. Ditto for indexed offers. What arouse the skepticism of the CLCV: The state will subsidize suppliers (10 billion for electricity and gas, according to an estimate by Bercy in 2022, editor’s note), by asking them to apply the tariff, notes François Carlier, the general delegate of the consumer association. But what guarantees that they will?

Note that the regulated electricity tariff (21 million customers at EDF) will not disappear. Beware of the sometimes misleading arguments of some direct sellers.

Three questions to Emmanuelle Wargon, President of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE)

Gas: the shield may apply without regulated tariffs

The regulated gas tariff (TRV) disappears on June 30, 2023. What do you say to the CLCV, which fears tariff increases?

Regulated tariffs and tariff shields should not be confused. The end of the regulated tariff does not mean that the French will no longer be protected. What protects them is the tariff shield, put in place by the government. And this shield may continue to apply, even without a regulated tariff.

How ?

The Energy Regulation Commission has undertaken to produce a price reference system, which will replace the gas TRV. This will make it possible to calculate the state compensation for energy suppliers, who pass on the reduction in tariffs to users. This price benchmark will be very close to the TRV.

Gas prices have fallen. Is the price shield still attractive?

The tariff shield remains protective. It limited the increase to 15% in January 2023. Without this shield, the real increase in the regulated tariff would be 56.7%. Last year, the difference was even more marked: around 100%.