As you know, there is not, there has never been and there will be no recession in France.
It was Bruno who said it, that is to say if it is a certainty.
Well, it is true that now the Banque de France has just released THE dark scenario. Yes, you know a completely unpredictable and completely unimaginable situation that could, if we were really unlucky, drag our country into recession.
The dark scenario of the Banque de France
“In its macroeconomic projections published on Tuesday June 21, the Banque de France chose to retain two scenarios. The first, qualified as “central” because deemed the most likely, anticipates an increase of 2.3% in GDP in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023, growth curbed by persistently high inflation (5.6% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023) reducing purchasing power (-1% in 2022) and which would result in a rise in the unemployment rate, from 7.3% currently to 7.9% in 2024”.
So far, nothing new under the sun of blissful fools! But look at the next paragraph.
“The Banque de France is also considering an “unfavourable” scenario in the event of an extension of the war waged by Russia in Ukraine, which would be accompanied by increased uncertainty weighing on both domestic demand and household confidence. as on international trade, financial conditions and food prices. This black scenario is based in particular on “the assumption of a total cessation of European imports of Russian oil and gas from the third quarter of 2022 and additional tensions of quite exceptional magnitude on oil and gas prices” . The price of a barrel of oil would thus register an additional increase of 67 dollars from the fourth quarter of 2022, a shock which would persist over time (+ 31 dollars per barrel at the end of 2024)”. Under these conditions, inflation should reach 6.1% in 2022 and continue to rise to 7% in 2023, with the consequence of plunging the French economy into a severe recession (-1.3% next year) before the return of weak growth in 2024 (+1.3%). This “unfavorable” scenario would ultimately result in a marked deterioration in public finances, with a deficit reaching 5% of GDP in 2024 and a debt amounting to 117% of GDP on that date..
And what is happening before your eyes?
The embargo on Russian oil.
Stopping gas supplies from Russia.
And… a long-lasting conflict.
I don’t want to abuse it too much, but it still looks damned like the Banque de France’s “dark scenario”.
We are led by puppets and my hens have a better view of the situation than our leaders who are decidedly lying permanently.
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Source Le Point.fr here
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